CHECK IT OUT!!!!

http://www.strike-the-root.com/91/shaw/shaw1.html

Stuart Buck <stuartbuck@msn.com> (unregistered) wrote:

any remotely satisfying causal argument for why schooling systems with near-identical pedagogical techniques would have different results outside of that selection bias.

Freddie and I have discussed this point several times before, but nothing I say ever seems to sink in:

A. There is lots of evidence of perverse selection bias as to private schools as a whole. For example, Derek Neal and Jeffrey Grogger recently found [http://muse.jhu.edu/demo/brookings-wharton_papers_on_urban_affairs/v2000/2000.1grogger.pdf] that “there is evidence of NEGATIVE SELECTION into Catholic schools. Relative to their public-school counterparts, urban whites who attend these schools appear to possess unmeasured traits that inhibit attainment.” They add this footnote: “Evidence of negative selection is common in this literature. Coleman and Hoffer (1987), Evans and Schwab (1995), and Neal (1997) all report evidence of negative selection into Catholic schools. A common hypothesis concerning this result is that some parents send their children to Catholic schools seeking a remedy for existing problems with discipline and motivation.”

B. No remotely satisfying reason that private schools might do a better job? Here are several possibilities:

1. Potential for stricter discipline.

2. Potential to hire better teachers and/or not to get stuck with bad teachers who have tenure thanks to a union contract. (See, e.g., http://www.tntp.org/files/TNTPPressRelease.pdf ).

3. Potential to be more responsive to parents.

4. Because of 3, potential to inspire more parental involvement, both on an individual and community level. This is a factor that Coleman and Hoffer identified in their famous book on why urban Catholic schools were superior, at least as of the 1980s.

5. Potential to be able to use a more effective and rigorous curriculum (e.g., Singapore math) without being quashed by state bureaucrats who haven't approved the purchase of that curriculum, or by the many interest groups that get involved in the curriculum selection process.

6. Potential to impose increased academic demands more generally. In looking at the famous HSB data, Coleman and Hoffer (pp. 44-45) found that the “most striking difference between public and private school curricula is the much greater likelihood of academic program placement in the private schools.” (Nearly 50% of Catholic students were in specialized “academic” programs, while only 3.3% of public school students were in such programs; most public school students were in “comprehensive” or more general programs.)

7. Potential to drastically reduce dropout rates. See, e.g., Sander 2001, p. 23. Similarly, Coleman and Hoffer found that the black dropout rate in public high schools was 17.2%, while the black dropout rate in Catholic high schools was a mere 4.6%. (p. 127). They also point out that this is not what you would expect, given that Catholic high schools also had substantially higher achievement gains for black students. Normally, you would think that a more academically demanding high school could easily have a higher dropout rate, not a rate that is nearly 4 times lower. (Coleman and Hoffer have a very lengthy passage in which they try to test for selection effects here.)

Freddie and I have discussed this point several times before, but nothing I say ever seems to sink in:

A. There is lots of evidence of perverse selection bias as to private schools as a whole. For example, Derek Neal and Jeffrey Grogger recently found [http://muse.jhu.edu/demo/brookings-wharton_papers_on_urban_affairs/v2000/2000.1grogger.pdf] that “there is evidence of NEGATIVE SELECTION into Catholic schools. Relative to their public-school counterparts, urban whites who attend these schools appear to possess unmeasured traits that inhibit attainment.” They add this footnote: “Evidence of negative selection is common in this literature. Coleman and Hoffer (1987), Evans and Schwab (1995), and Neal (1997) all report evidence of negative selection into Catholic schools. A common hypothesis concerning this result is that some parents send their children to Catholic schools seeking a remedy for existing problems with discipline and motivation.”

B. No remotely satisfying reason that private schools might do a better job? Here are several possibilities:

1. Potential for stricter discipline.

2. Potential to hire better teachers and/or not to get stuck with bad teachers who have tenure thanks to a union contract. (See, e.g., http://www.tntp.org/files/TNTPPressRelease.pdf ).

3. Potential to be more responsive to parents.

4. Because of 3, potential to inspire more parental involvement, both on an individual and community level. This is a factor that Coleman and Hoffer identified in their famous book on why urban Catholic schools were superior, at least as of the 1980s.

5. Potential to be able to use a more effective and rigorous curriculum (e.g., Singapore math) without being quashed by state bureaucrats who haven't approved the purchase of that curriculum, or by the many interest groups that get involved in the curriculum selection process.

6. Potential to impose increased academic demands more generally. In looking at the famous HSB data, Coleman and Hoffer (pp. 44-45) found that the “most striking difference between public and private school curricula is the much greater likelihood of academic program placement in the private schools.” (Nearly 50% of Catholic students were in specialized “academic” programs, while only 3.3% of public school students were in such programs; most public school students were in “comprehensive” or more general programs.)

7. Potential to drastically reduce dropout rates. See, e.g., Sander 2001, p. 23. Similarly, Coleman and Hoffer found that the black dropout rate in public high schools was 17.2%, while the black dropout rate in Catholic high schools was a mere 4.6%. (p. 127). They also point out that this is not what you would expect, given that Catholic high schools also had substantially higher achievement gains for black students. Normally, you would think that a more academically demanding high school could easily have a higher dropout rate, not a rate that is nearly 4 times lower. (Coleman and Hoffer have a very lengthy passage in which they try to test for selection effects here.)

The best they can argue is that some IV-statistical dark arts can produce “including estimates from Colombia based on lottery selection of scholarships that could be used private schools”, but that is incredibly limited is both scope and time and place. They certainly aren't actual controlled tests.

Jumping to the third world doesn't preclude Freddie's point – It is true in non-first world the services the government provides in education are terrible, but the same is true of sewage. One would expect the marginal effect of peer-selection (Freddie's point) to be significantly great in global-poverty areas.