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	<title>Comments on: The Color of Government Money</title>
	<atom:link href="http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2009/02/25/the-color-of-government-money/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2009/02/25/the-color-of-government-money/</link>
	<description>The Sweet Release of Reason</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Thu, 09 Feb 2012 18:11:50 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: JB</title>
		<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2009/02/25/the-color-of-government-money/#comment-21919</link>
		<dc:creator>JB</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 01 Mar 2009 11:24:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=2955#comment-21919</guid>
		<description>T. Boone Pick-your-pockets is absolute slime.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;A billionaire who wants checks from US taxpayers so he can line his pockets.  Hey, retard, if your ideas are so good you would be able to use your own capital or raise more to implement them.  If you need free money from the government, it means your ideas suck.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>T. Boone Pick-your-pockets is absolute slime.</p>
<p>A billionaire who wants checks from US taxpayers so he can line his pockets.  Hey, retard, if your ideas are so good you would be able to use your own capital or raise more to implement them.  If you need free money from the government, it means your ideas suck.</p>
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		<title>By: JB</title>
		<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2009/02/25/the-color-of-government-money/#comment-21918</link>
		<dc:creator>JB</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 01 Mar 2009 03:24:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=2955#comment-21918</guid>
		<description>T. Boone Pick-your-pockets is absolute slime.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;A billionaire who wants checks from US taxpayers so he can line his pockets.  Hey, retard, if your ideas are so good you would be able to use your own capital or raise more to implement them.  If you need free money from the government, it means your ideas suck.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>T. Boone Pick-your-pockets is absolute slime.</p>
<p>A billionaire who wants checks from US taxpayers so he can line his pockets.  Hey, retard, if your ideas are so good you would be able to use your own capital or raise more to implement them.  If you need free money from the government, it means your ideas suck.</p>
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		<title>By: odograph</title>
		<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2009/02/25/the-color-of-government-money/#comment-21917</link>
		<dc:creator>odograph</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Feb 2009 18:34:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=2955#comment-21917</guid>
		<description>I was watching the pilot of &quot;The Time Tunnel&quot; recently.  Lots of irony there, streaming it over household Wifi ... esp. when they send someone &quot;to the history computer&quot; to learn the exact hour of the Titanic&#039;s impact.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;I&#039;m watching their pilot on a computer that can the wikipedia &quot;history computer&quot; to tell me that.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Oh, they chose a high number for their 1968 series.  They said the Time Tunnel cost $9B if i recall correctly.  My history computer cost $600</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I was watching the pilot of &#8220;The Time Tunnel&#8221; recently.  Lots of irony there, streaming it over household Wifi &#8230; esp. when they send someone &#8220;to the history computer&#8221; to learn the exact hour of the Titanic&#39;s impact.</p>
<p>I&#39;m watching their pilot on a computer that can the wikipedia &#8220;history computer&#8221; to tell me that.</p>
<p>Oh, they chose a high number for their 1968 series.  They said the Time Tunnel cost $9B if i recall correctly.  My history computer cost $600</p>
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		<title>By: odograph</title>
		<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2009/02/25/the-color-of-government-money/#comment-21916</link>
		<dc:creator>odograph</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Feb 2009 18:30:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=2955#comment-21916</guid>
		<description>There&#039;s a great book called &quot;Where Wizards Stay Up Late&quot;.  I think it shows that some smart people in the 40&#039;s, 50&#039;s, and 60&#039;s, visualized something like out internet.  They built it.  When I say &quot;succeeded beyond their dreams&quot; I mean less in the tech achieved, but more in the follow-on market and economies of scale.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Isn&#039;t that exactly what we want again?  If there are any energy technologies around the corner, and if the time is right to seek them - I&#039;m saying do it, and then step back for the commercialization phase.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;(Check &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.ibiblio.org/pioneers/bush.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Vannevar Bush on &quot;as we may think&quot;&lt;/a&gt;)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There&#39;s a great book called &#8220;Where Wizards Stay Up Late&#8221;.  I think it shows that some smart people in the 40&#39;s, 50&#39;s, and 60&#39;s, visualized something like out internet.  They built it.  When I say &#8220;succeeded beyond their dreams&#8221; I mean less in the tech achieved, but more in the follow-on market and economies of scale.</p>
<p>Isn&#39;t that exactly what we want again?  If there are any energy technologies around the corner, and if the time is right to seek them &#8211; I&#39;m saying do it, and then step back for the commercialization phase.</p>
<p>(Check <a href="http://www.ibiblio.org/pioneers/bush.html" rel="nofollow">Vannevar Bush on &#8220;as we may think&#8221;</a>)</p>
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		<title>By: Paul O&#039;Pinion</title>
		<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2009/02/25/the-color-of-government-money/#comment-21915</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul O&#039;Pinion</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Feb 2009 18:23:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=2955#comment-21915</guid>
		<description>Rather, you want a large number of small to medium sized projects.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Amen, brother!  All growth and innovation comes from smaller, nimbler companies, not to mention new jobs.  With few exceptions, large corporations either cut jobs or move them overseas to enact cost savings.  They get the wagons in a circle and their idea of innovation is a new spin or lobbying to preserve the status quo in whatever industry their failing in (auto? finance?).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Rather, you want a large number of small to medium sized projects.</p>
<p>Amen, brother!  All growth and innovation comes from smaller, nimbler companies, not to mention new jobs.  With few exceptions, large corporations either cut jobs or move them overseas to enact cost savings.  They get the wagons in a circle and their idea of innovation is a new spin or lobbying to preserve the status quo in whatever industry their failing in (auto? finance?).</p>
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		<title>By: Paul O&#039;Pinion</title>
		<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2009/02/25/the-color-of-government-money/#comment-22614</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul O&#039;Pinion</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Feb 2009 18:23:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=2955#comment-22614</guid>
		<description>Rather, you want a large number of small to medium sized projects.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Amen, brother!  All growth and innovation comes from smaller, nimbler companies, not to mention new jobs.  With few exceptions, large corporations either cut jobs or move them overseas to enact cost savings.  They get the wagons in a circle and their idea of innovation is a new spin or lobbying to preserve the status quo in whatever industry their failing in (auto? finance?).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Rather, you want a large number of small to medium sized projects.</p>
<p>Amen, brother!  All growth and innovation comes from smaller, nimbler companies, not to mention new jobs.  With few exceptions, large corporations either cut jobs or move them overseas to enact cost savings.  They get the wagons in a circle and their idea of innovation is a new spin or lobbying to preserve the status quo in whatever industry their failing in (auto? finance?).</p>
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		<title>By: Paul G. Brown</title>
		<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2009/02/25/the-color-of-government-money/#comment-21914</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul G. Brown</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Feb 2009 18:00:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=2955#comment-21914</guid>
		<description>Let me take a crack at it. &lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Perhaps the major lesson of the 1990s in Silicon Valley was that a &#039;portfolio approach&#039; to investment in high-tech startups works adequately well. Sure - there were the &lt;a href=&quot;http://Pets.com&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Pets.com&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;http://Boo.com&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Boo.com&lt;/a&gt; and Webvans. But there were also Paypal, EBay, and Amazon. Most significantly, we all learned that the return on investment in startups proved extremely hard to predict up front. &lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;At first (late 1980s - early 1990s) VCs took more conservative approaches. Yet for every Oracle and Sun there was a Next or massive over-procurement in fibre. More permissive times saw remarkably similar rates of success. In the end the VCs were (and still are) shoveling money out with pretty minimal attention to even trying to &#039;pick winners&#039;. They don&#039;t want out and out frauds, but if you have a half-way plausible business plan (customer? product? risks? budget? project plan?) they are usually good with the cash. &lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;The lesson is that thinking too hard about things wastes time. And what you don&#039;t want are a small number of mega-projects. Rather, you want a large number of small to medium sized projects, which implies a larger number of due diligence and oversight teams -- exactly the management structure the piece suggests Chu is putting place.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Let me take a crack at it. </p>
<p>Perhaps the major lesson of the 1990s in Silicon Valley was that a &#39;portfolio approach&#39; to investment in high-tech startups works adequately well. Sure &#8211; there were the <a href="http://Pets.com" rel="nofollow">Pets.com</a>, <a href="http://Boo.com" rel="nofollow">Boo.com</a> and Webvans. But there were also Paypal, EBay, and Amazon. Most significantly, we all learned that the return on investment in startups proved extremely hard to predict up front. </p>
<p>At first (late 1980s &#8211; early 1990s) VCs took more conservative approaches. Yet for every Oracle and Sun there was a Next or massive over-procurement in fibre. More permissive times saw remarkably similar rates of success. In the end the VCs were (and still are) shoveling money out with pretty minimal attention to even trying to &#39;pick winners&#39;. They don&#39;t want out and out frauds, but if you have a half-way plausible business plan (customer? product? risks? budget? project plan?) they are usually good with the cash. </p>
<p>The lesson is that thinking too hard about things wastes time. And what you don&#39;t want are a small number of mega-projects. Rather, you want a large number of small to medium sized projects, which implies a larger number of due diligence and oversight teams &#8212; exactly the management structure the piece suggests Chu is putting place.</p>
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		<title>By: arthegall</title>
		<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2009/02/25/the-color-of-government-money/#comment-21913</link>
		<dc:creator>arthegall</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Feb 2009 17:23:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=2955#comment-21913</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;So speeding it all up increases the likelihood of even lower returns from government investment and the likelihood that Pickens ends up with a bigger share of the booty.&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;That&#039;s begging the question.  There are perfectly reasonable mental models of this situation where the exact opposite outcome occurs (where lowering the &quot;activation energy&quot; required to apply for funds leads to a &lt;i&gt;relatively&lt;/i&gt; higher proportion of funds going to smaller-and-worthier applicants, which leads to better returns on government investment (it may also lead to more money, in absolute terms, in Pickens pocket... but if our goal is stimulus and not &quot;screw T. Boone Pickens,&quot; that might be a necessary evil)).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>So speeding it all up increases the likelihood of even lower returns from government investment and the likelihood that Pickens ends up with a bigger share of the booty.</p></blockquote>
<p>That&#39;s begging the question.  There are perfectly reasonable mental models of this situation where the exact opposite outcome occurs (where lowering the &#8220;activation energy&#8221; required to apply for funds leads to a <i>relatively</i> higher proportion of funds going to smaller-and-worthier applicants, which leads to better returns on government investment (it may also lead to more money, in absolute terms, in Pickens pocket&#8230; but if our goal is stimulus and not &#8220;screw T. Boone Pickens,&#8221; that might be a necessary evil)).</p>
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		<title>By: Will Wilkinson</title>
		<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2009/02/25/the-color-of-government-money/#comment-21912</link>
		<dc:creator>Will Wilkinson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Feb 2009 17:19:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=2955#comment-21912</guid>
		<description>Agreed. Which is to say that the expected probability of the results they got was basically zero. So, interesting question, is government investment any more likely than private investment to produce &quot;black swan&quot; innovation? I think that is perhaps the only semi-plausible argument in favor of it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Agreed. Which is to say that the expected probability of the results they got was basically zero. So, interesting question, is government investment any more likely than private investment to produce &#8220;black swan&#8221; innovation? I think that is perhaps the only semi-plausible argument in favor of it.</p>
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		<title>By: Will Wilkinson</title>
		<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2009/02/25/the-color-of-government-money/#comment-21911</link>
		<dc:creator>Will Wilkinson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Feb 2009 17:17:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=2955#comment-21911</guid>
		<description>I disagree. Speed matters. The contracting process can recognize merit. But the costs for smaller but more meritorious firms to quickly turn around good proposals is relatively higher. So speeding it all up increases the likelihood of even lower returns from government investment and  the likelihood that Pickens ends up with a bigger share of the booty.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I disagree. Speed matters. The contracting process can recognize merit. But the costs for smaller but more meritorious firms to quickly turn around good proposals is relatively higher. So speeding it all up increases the likelihood of even lower returns from government investment and  the likelihood that Pickens ends up with a bigger share of the booty.</p>
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