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	<title>Comments on: Tax Cut Stimulus: Better Economics, Wiser Politics</title>
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	<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2009/01/25/tax-cut-stimulus-better-economics-wiser-politics/</link>
	<description>The Sweet Release of Reason</description>
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		<title>By: Adam J Levine</title>
		<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2009/01/25/tax-cut-stimulus-better-economics-wiser-politics/#comment-20329</link>
		<dc:creator>Adam J Levine</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 Feb 2009 13:07:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=2594#comment-20329</guid>
		<description>&quot;In 1980, Ronald Reagan promised that, if elected, he would cut taxes, raise military spending AND balance the budget—all at the same time. His opponent, George H.W. Bush called it “voodoo economics”. But Reagan won the election and kept his promise. He cut the marginal tax rate on the highest income earners from 75% to 38%. What happened?&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;In 1982, the first full year for Reagan’s policies, the economy shrank by 2%, the worst performance since the Great Depression. Investment — the magic transmission belt through which all other Supply Side benefits were supposed to flow — actually declined as a percent of GDP over the 1980s. Worse, Reagan’s Supply Side policies created the biggest budget deficits in history. The numbers tell the story.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Jimmy Carter’s last budget produced a deficit of $77 billion. At the time, it seemed huge. But Reagan’s first budget swelled the deficit to $128 billion. By the next year, 1983, it had exploded to $208 billion and was creating severe problems for the economy. By 1992, at the end of the “Reagan Revolution,” (under Reagan’s Vice President and successor, Bush, Sr.) the deficit was approaching $300 billion a year.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Annual deficits, of course, accumulate to the national debt. In 1980, the national debt amounted to less than $1 trillion. By the end of 1992, it had reached $4.35 trillion. In other words, the debt, which had taken over 200 years to reach $1 trillion, quadrupled in the 12 years of Supply Side Economics. A more complete, definitive repudiation of Supply Side’s claims could not be imagined. What went wrong?&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;According to Supply Side “theory,” tax cuts should go to the wealthy for only they can afford to use the extra income to invest in the economy — to increase its capacity to “supply” goods. But there is nothing to make sure they actually invest, especially in the U.S. economy. &quot; by Robert Freeman&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;If you give a dollar to a low income family, they will spend the dollar at a US supermarket; if you give the dollar to a rich person, they will invest it, some domestic but a lot of it in other countries.  They may short the dollar, treasuries, or put it in a Swiss account or gold.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Save the tax cut for the rich BS for someone who didn&#039;t study economics, ok?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;In 1980, Ronald Reagan promised that, if elected, he would cut taxes, raise military spending AND balance the budget—all at the same time. His opponent, George H.W. Bush called it “voodoo economics”. But Reagan won the election and kept his promise. He cut the marginal tax rate on the highest income earners from 75% to 38%. What happened?</p>
<p>In 1982, the first full year for Reagan’s policies, the economy shrank by 2%, the worst performance since the Great Depression. Investment — the magic transmission belt through which all other Supply Side benefits were supposed to flow — actually declined as a percent of GDP over the 1980s. Worse, Reagan’s Supply Side policies created the biggest budget deficits in history. The numbers tell the story.</p>
<p>Jimmy Carter’s last budget produced a deficit of $77 billion. At the time, it seemed huge. But Reagan’s first budget swelled the deficit to $128 billion. By the next year, 1983, it had exploded to $208 billion and was creating severe problems for the economy. By 1992, at the end of the “Reagan Revolution,” (under Reagan’s Vice President and successor, Bush, Sr.) the deficit was approaching $300 billion a year.</p>
<p>Annual deficits, of course, accumulate to the national debt. In 1980, the national debt amounted to less than $1 trillion. By the end of 1992, it had reached $4.35 trillion. In other words, the debt, which had taken over 200 years to reach $1 trillion, quadrupled in the 12 years of Supply Side Economics. A more complete, definitive repudiation of Supply Side’s claims could not be imagined. What went wrong?</p>
<p>According to Supply Side “theory,” tax cuts should go to the wealthy for only they can afford to use the extra income to invest in the economy — to increase its capacity to “supply” goods. But there is nothing to make sure they actually invest, especially in the U.S. economy. &#8221; by Robert Freeman</p>
<p>If you give a dollar to a low income family, they will spend the dollar at a US supermarket; if you give the dollar to a rich person, they will invest it, some domestic but a lot of it in other countries.  They may short the dollar, treasuries, or put it in a Swiss account or gold.</p>
<p>Save the tax cut for the rich BS for someone who didn&#39;t study economics, ok?</p>
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		<title>By: Adam J Levine</title>
		<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2009/01/25/tax-cut-stimulus-better-economics-wiser-politics/#comment-20328</link>
		<dc:creator>Adam J Levine</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 Feb 2009 05:07:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=2594#comment-20328</guid>
		<description>&quot;In 1980, Ronald Reagan promised that, if elected, he would cut taxes, raise military spending AND balance the budget—all at the same time. His opponent, George H.W. Bush called it “voodoo economics”. But Reagan won the election and kept his promise. He cut the marginal tax rate on the highest income earners from 75% to 38%. What happened?&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;In 1982, the first full year for Reagan’s policies, the economy shrank by 2%, the worst performance since the Great Depression. Investment — the magic transmission belt through which all other Supply Side benefits were supposed to flow — actually declined as a percent of GDP over the 1980s. Worse, Reagan’s Supply Side policies created the biggest budget deficits in history. The numbers tell the story.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Jimmy Carter’s last budget produced a deficit of $77 billion. At the time, it seemed huge. But Reagan’s first budget swelled the deficit to $128 billion. By the next year, 1983, it had exploded to $208 billion and was creating severe problems for the economy. By 1992, at the end of the “Reagan Revolution,” (under Reagan’s Vice President and successor, Bush, Sr.) the deficit was approaching $300 billion a year.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Annual deficits, of course, accumulate to the national debt. In 1980, the national debt amounted to less than $1 trillion. By the end of 1992, it had reached $4.35 trillion. In other words, the debt, which had taken over 200 years to reach $1 trillion, quadrupled in the 12 years of Supply Side Economics. A more complete, definitive repudiation of Supply Side’s claims could not be imagined. What went wrong?&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;According to Supply Side “theory,” tax cuts should go to the wealthy for only they can afford to use the extra income to invest in the economy — to increase its capacity to “supply” goods. But there is nothing to make sure they actually invest, especially in the U.S. economy. &quot; by Robert Freeman&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;If you give a dollar to a low income family, they will spend the dollar at a US supermarket; if you give the dollar to a rich person, they will invest it, some domestic but a lot of it in other countries.  They may short the dollar, treasuries, or put it in a Swiss account or gold.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Save the tax cut for the rich BS for someone who didn&#039;t study economics, ok?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;In 1980, Ronald Reagan promised that, if elected, he would cut taxes, raise military spending AND balance the budget—all at the same time. His opponent, George H.W. Bush called it “voodoo economics”. But Reagan won the election and kept his promise. He cut the marginal tax rate on the highest income earners from 75% to 38%. What happened?</p>
<p>In 1982, the first full year for Reagan’s policies, the economy shrank by 2%, the worst performance since the Great Depression. Investment — the magic transmission belt through which all other Supply Side benefits were supposed to flow — actually declined as a percent of GDP over the 1980s. Worse, Reagan’s Supply Side policies created the biggest budget deficits in history. The numbers tell the story.</p>
<p>Jimmy Carter’s last budget produced a deficit of $77 billion. At the time, it seemed huge. But Reagan’s first budget swelled the deficit to $128 billion. By the next year, 1983, it had exploded to $208 billion and was creating severe problems for the economy. By 1992, at the end of the “Reagan Revolution,” (under Reagan’s Vice President and successor, Bush, Sr.) the deficit was approaching $300 billion a year.</p>
<p>Annual deficits, of course, accumulate to the national debt. In 1980, the national debt amounted to less than $1 trillion. By the end of 1992, it had reached $4.35 trillion. In other words, the debt, which had taken over 200 years to reach $1 trillion, quadrupled in the 12 years of Supply Side Economics. A more complete, definitive repudiation of Supply Side’s claims could not be imagined. What went wrong?</p>
<p>According to Supply Side “theory,” tax cuts should go to the wealthy for only they can afford to use the extra income to invest in the economy — to increase its capacity to “supply” goods. But there is nothing to make sure they actually invest, especially in the U.S. economy. &#8221; by Robert Freeman</p>
<p>If you give a dollar to a low income family, they will spend the dollar at a US supermarket; if you give the dollar to a rich person, they will invest it, some domestic but a lot of it in other countries.  They may short the dollar, treasuries, or put it in a Swiss account or gold.</p>
<p>Save the tax cut for the rich BS for someone who didn&#39;t study economics, ok?</p>
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		<title>By: Quote Of The Day — But As For Me</title>
		<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2009/01/25/tax-cut-stimulus-better-economics-wiser-politics/#comment-20327</link>
		<dc:creator>Quote Of The Day — But As For Me</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Jan 2009 12:55:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=2594#comment-20327</guid>
		<description>[...] Remind me again: Why are we entertaining the thought of Keynesian stimulus? (Bartlett link via Will Wilkinson.) [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Remind me again: Why are we entertaining the thought of Keynesian stimulus? (Bartlett link via Will Wilkinson.) [...]</p>
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		<title>By: KJ</title>
		<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2009/01/25/tax-cut-stimulus-better-economics-wiser-politics/#comment-20326</link>
		<dc:creator>KJ</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 26 Jan 2009 01:37:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=2594#comment-20326</guid>
		<description>I don&#039;t buy the generic CBO analysis.  Every city has a shitload of repair projects ready to go.  Every city needs new buses, upgraded steets, sewer line repairs, etc, etc.  And what I like about the infrastructure investment is that it links much more closely to job growth.  The last Republican &quot;recovery&quot; had pathetic job growth mainly because stimulus consisted of tax cuts.  Bush&#039;s record was terrible on jobs and I find jobs to be the most compelling stat to look at despite our normal infatuation with GDP.  &lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Also, Obama&#039;s team seems to identify 75% of the stimulus being spent within the first 18 months.  When an actual report gets released from the CBO that&#039;s what it will say.  Too bad the Republicans blocked a stimulus package back in September/October.  Some of these infrastructure projects would be coming online right now.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#39;t buy the generic CBO analysis.  Every city has a shitload of repair projects ready to go.  Every city needs new buses, upgraded steets, sewer line repairs, etc, etc.  And what I like about the infrastructure investment is that it links much more closely to job growth.  The last Republican &#8220;recovery&#8221; had pathetic job growth mainly because stimulus consisted of tax cuts.  Bush&#39;s record was terrible on jobs and I find jobs to be the most compelling stat to look at despite our normal infatuation with GDP.  </p>
<p>Also, Obama&#39;s team seems to identify 75% of the stimulus being spent within the first 18 months.  When an actual report gets released from the CBO that&#39;s what it will say.  Too bad the Republicans blocked a stimulus package back in September/October.  Some of these infrastructure projects would be coming online right now.</p>
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		<title>By: Economics of Contempt</title>
		<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2009/01/25/tax-cut-stimulus-better-economics-wiser-politics/#comment-20325</link>
		<dc:creator>Economics of Contempt</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 26 Jan 2009 01:18:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=2594#comment-20325</guid>
		<description>Why would the Investment Tax Credit be better at identifying where &quot;economic resources are underutilized&quot; than infrastructure programs? We know for sure that infrastructure spending will have to increase in the future. Existing infrastructure requires upkeep, and new infrastructure projects will be required to adapt to new technologies, population patterns, etc. So using infrastructure as stimulus is just about shifting the timing of spending that&#039;s going to happen anyway.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;An investment tax credit would induce investment spending that may or may not have occurred in the absence of the credit crisis. There&#039;s no way of knowing whether the tax credit is encouraging investments that would make economic sense if financing was available, but that the credit crisis has made uneconomical, or whether the tax credit is encouraging investments that wouldn&#039;t make economic sense even if financing was available.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Why would the Investment Tax Credit be better at identifying where &#8220;economic resources are underutilized&#8221; than infrastructure programs? We know for sure that infrastructure spending will have to increase in the future. Existing infrastructure requires upkeep, and new infrastructure projects will be required to adapt to new technologies, population patterns, etc. So using infrastructure as stimulus is just about shifting the timing of spending that&#39;s going to happen anyway.</p>
<p>An investment tax credit would induce investment spending that may or may not have occurred in the absence of the credit crisis. There&#39;s no way of knowing whether the tax credit is encouraging investments that would make economic sense if financing was available, but that the credit crisis has made uneconomical, or whether the tax credit is encouraging investments that wouldn&#39;t make economic sense even if financing was available.</p>
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		<title>By: Bruce Bartlett</title>
		<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2009/01/25/tax-cut-stimulus-better-economics-wiser-politics/#comment-20324</link>
		<dc:creator>Bruce Bartlett</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 Jan 2009 18:45:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=2594#comment-20324</guid>
		<description>CBO&#039;s views on the payout rate from infrastructure spending long predates this administration.  Check the testimony of various CBO officials on its web site.  They have repeatedly said that only about 25% of money is spent the first year after being made available for spending.  That means after the proposal has been made, after the authorization has passed Congress, after the appropriation has been made and the fiscal year has begun, and after the relevant federal agency has certified that the project is in fact ready to begin.  Given that most public works projects take more than a year to complete, why is it any surprise that only a fourth of the money is spent the first year?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>CBO&#39;s views on the payout rate from infrastructure spending long predates this administration.  Check the testimony of various CBO officials on its web site.  They have repeatedly said that only about 25% of money is spent the first year after being made available for spending.  That means after the proposal has been made, after the authorization has passed Congress, after the appropriation has been made and the fiscal year has begun, and after the relevant federal agency has certified that the project is in fact ready to begin.  Given that most public works projects take more than a year to complete, why is it any surprise that only a fourth of the money is spent the first year?</p>
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		<title>By: Tim</title>
		<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2009/01/25/tax-cut-stimulus-better-economics-wiser-politics/#comment-20323</link>
		<dc:creator>Tim</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 Jan 2009 17:46:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=2594#comment-20323</guid>
		<description>I suppose my objection would be tax cuts would just shift the &quot;undue corruption, waste, etc.&quot; from the government to the private sector....have we not learned anything from the last 20 years?  Right now I trust the government with money far more than anything, ANYTHING, handling money on their own.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I suppose my objection would be tax cuts would just shift the &#8220;undue corruption, waste, etc.&#8221; from the government to the private sector&#8230;.have we not learned anything from the last 20 years?  Right now I trust the government with money far more than anything, ANYTHING, handling money on their own.</p>
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		<title>By: Tim</title>
		<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2009/01/25/tax-cut-stimulus-better-economics-wiser-politics/#comment-20322</link>
		<dc:creator>Tim</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 Jan 2009 17:40:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=2594#comment-20322</guid>
		<description>OK well it is that one.  Which is slightly suspect.  But I guess it still stands, at least as to that small part.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>OK well it is that one.  Which is slightly suspect.  But I guess it still stands, at least as to that small part.</p>
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		<title>By: Tim</title>
		<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2009/01/25/tax-cut-stimulus-better-economics-wiser-politics/#comment-20321</link>
		<dc:creator>Tim</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 Jan 2009 17:36:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=2594#comment-20321</guid>
		<description>Is that the CBO report that doesn&#039;t really exist?  The one that didn&#039;t doa complete assessment?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Is that the CBO report that doesn&#39;t really exist?  The one that didn&#39;t doa complete assessment?</p>
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