http://www.lifeboat.com/

Jim Manzi, Will provided an excerpt from your paper that he felt was exemplary. For the reasons I stated, I found it overheated (pardon the pun). But I wouldn't infer from a bit of polemics in an excerpt of a paper that the paper as a whole isn't serious, or even that its conclusion is wrong. That would depend on whether the excerpt is representative of the whole; from your comments, it seems not to be.

Yeah, that sounds about right.

Because, you see, it is a wild-ass guess.

The models are, in plain Anglo-Saxon terms, shit. They don't predict anything (accurately, and that's what matters – I could make up a model that didn't predict, myself – and it wouldn't be worth using!).

They don't predict what we have now from past data – in part because the data is also, to again use the plain Anglo-Saxon term, shit. Extrapolations and proxy data, none of which seem to ever stand up to the test of time or critique.

It's a house of cards.

(Unlike evolutionary theory, which has both mountains of strong paleontological and laboratory results to support it, not to mention the DNA evidence, and, well, the entire case. Which is, while hard to quantify, multiple orders of magnitude stronger than that for anthropogenic* global warming.

Thus the specious comparison between climate change skepticism and creationism will not stand un-refuted in my presence.

* I specify anthropogenic because it's the only kind we can sensibly take action against; if, as is increasingly suspected by various scientists [see recent American Physical Union announcement], what climate change we have, in either direction, is almost entirely unrelated to human activity, no amount of Gore-like changes to society and industry will do diddly, and thus they're pointless to contemplate, as their benefit cannot possibly approach their cost.)

I've written a (very) long reply to this paper here:

http://theamericanscene.com/2008/01/04/weitzman…

It basically gives a rational foundation for the precautionary principle when there is structural uncertainty.

I don't think that is an entirely fair critique. I went through in some detail in that article, in decending order: the expected costs, the probability distriobution of projected costs and then the inherently unquantifiable uncertainty (as opposed to quantifiable risk) of costs. Sonce neither the expected costs nor the risk-adjusted costs justify (by my lights, at least) the costs of the proposed remedies, one is left with no non-arbitrary stopping position on acceptable costs for abatement. This is not just a theoretical issue. I reviewed in the article various proposals by serious people (presumably people you would consider “worth talking to”), like Stern and Al Gore that would create expected costs net of benefits of $17 trillion and $23 trillion respectively. James Hansen (whom I assume is also “worth talking to”) has yet-more-severe proposals that are almost impossible to cost because they would be so draconian.

Best regards,
Jim Manzi

I wouldn't go too hard on Manzi about this such easy polemicism (it's not like I've never worked out on a wooden dummy), but it's really a bit much holding this piece out as a model of “real, rigorous, intellectually honest debate.”

I know you're a thoroughgoing Hayekian so I thought I would point you to a very interesting essay I read recently. Though, you may have already read it. The essay is taken from a 1990 issue of The Review of Austrian Economics and was written by Joseph Salerno. Salerno introduces many Hayekian ideas, like those of “spontaneous” or “undesigned” order and the price system as “the use of knowledge in society”, and then proceeds to contrast them with the views of Ludwig von Mises. Although the differences seem fairly subtle, I think the potential implications are great. Again, I read it and figured I would point Hayekians to it as the essay presents an interesting critique to some of Hayek's ideas. It's titled Ludwig von Mises as Social Rationalist. Linked below.

http://mises.org/journals/rae/pdf/R4_2.pdf

ps. I hope all goes well with the move and that you both have a safe trip!