Comments on: Fact of the Day http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/03/03/fact-of-the-day/ The Sweet Release of Reason Tue, 22 May 2012 20:28:45 +0000 hourly 1 By: Matt http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/03/03/fact-of-the-day/#comment-12651 Matt Tue, 04 Mar 2008 21:07:01 +0000 http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/03/03/fact-of-the-day/#comment-12651 I've not read the paper noted in comment 2 above but I strongly suspect their model must be off. Consider that at the height of the highest level of immigration, at a time when there were few if any barriers to movement from politics, in Italy, the biggest sender country in the world at the the time, in the local regions that had the highest level of out-movement, the total out-flow as only about 4-5%. The difference in wages (and opportunity) was higher then, too. This makes me think that this model, if it really predicts that 27% of the population would move, is deeply unrealistic. (This is even leaving out the fact that there has, consistantly, been about a 30-50% rate of return migration all over the world.) When you look at actual immigration rates it turns out that for many reasons most people don't want to and won't move. The dangers of mass immigration are mostly immaginary. I’ve not read the paper noted in comment 2 above but I strongly suspect their model must be off. Consider that at the height of the highest level of immigration, at a time when there were few if any barriers to movement from politics, in Italy, the biggest sender country in the world at the the time, in the local regions that had the highest level of out-movement, the total out-flow as only about 4-5%. The difference in wages (and opportunity) was higher then, too. This makes me think that this model, if it really predicts that 27% of the population would move, is deeply unrealistic. (This is even leaving out the fact that there has, consistantly, been about a 30-50% rate of return migration all over the world.) When you look at actual immigration rates it turns out that for many reasons most people don’t want to and won’t move. The dangers of mass immigration are mostly immaginary.

]]> By: Matt http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/03/03/fact-of-the-day/#comment-12654 Matt Tue, 04 Mar 2008 21:07:00 +0000 http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/03/03/fact-of-the-day/#comment-12654 I've not read the paper noted in comment 2 above but I strongly suspect their model must be off. Consider that at the height of the highest level of immigration, at a time when there were few if any barriers to movement from politics, in Italy, the biggest sender country in the world at the the time, in the local regions that had the highest level of out-movement, the total out-flow as only about 4-5%. The difference in wages (and opportunity) was higher then, too. This makes me think that this model, if it really predicts that 27% of the population would move, is deeply unrealistic. (This is even leaving out the fact that there has, consistantly, been about a 30-50% rate of return migration all over the world.) When you look at actual immigration rates it turns out that for many reasons most people don't want to and won't move. The dangers of mass immigration are mostly immaginary. I’ve not read the paper noted in comment 2 above but I strongly suspect their model must be off. Consider that at the height of the highest level of immigration, at a time when there were few if any barriers to movement from politics, in Italy, the biggest sender country in the world at the the time, in the local regions that had the highest level of out-movement, the total out-flow as only about 4-5%. The difference in wages (and opportunity) was higher then, too. This makes me think that this model, if it really predicts that 27% of the population would move, is deeply unrealistic. (This is even leaving out the fact that there has, consistantly, been about a 30-50% rate of return migration all over the world.) When you look at actual immigration rates it turns out that for many reasons most people don’t want to and won’t move. The dangers of mass immigration are mostly immaginary.

]]> By: Pithlord http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/03/03/fact-of-the-day/#comment-12650 Pithlord Mon, 03 Mar 2008 22:08:54 +0000 http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/03/03/fact-of-the-day/#comment-12650 How can a los of the best-educated 27% of the population result in an increase of 16% of GNP. That can't be right. How can a los of the best-educated 27% of the population result in an increase of 16% of GNP. That can’t be right.

]]> By: Pithlord http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/03/03/fact-of-the-day/#comment-12655 Pithlord Mon, 03 Mar 2008 22:08:00 +0000 http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/03/03/fact-of-the-day/#comment-12655 How can a los of the best-educated 27% of the population result in an increase of 16% of GNP. That can't be right. How can a los of the best-educated 27% of the population result in an increase of 16% of GNP. That can’t be right.

]]> By: Javier http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/03/03/fact-of-the-day/#comment-12649 Javier Mon, 03 Mar 2008 21:30:14 +0000 http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/03/03/fact-of-the-day/#comment-12649 The bottom line: "Our simulations show that if the free movement of workers between East and West is allowed, as much as 27% of the Eastern European population would migrate to the West, with most of them being highly educated workers. This would benefit Europe as a whole by increasing the gross national product of Western Europe by almost 1% and that of Eastern Europe by 16% thanks to the fact that the highly educated workers are much more productive in the West and free trade spreads the benefits from their extra productivity." The bottom line:

“Our simulations show that if the free movement of workers between East and West is allowed, as much as
27% of the Eastern European population would migrate to the West, with most of them being highly educated
workers. This would benefit Europe as a whole by increasing the gross national product of Western Europe
by almost 1% and that of Eastern Europe by 16% thanks to the fact that the highly educated workers are
much more productive in the West and free trade spreads the benefits from their extra productivity.”

]]> By: Javier http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/03/03/fact-of-the-day/#comment-12653 Javier Mon, 03 Mar 2008 21:30:00 +0000 http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/03/03/fact-of-the-day/#comment-12653 The bottom line: "Our simulations show that if the free movement of workers between East and West is allowed, as much as 27% of the Eastern European population would migrate to the West, with most of them being highly educated workers. This would benefit Europe as a whole by increasing the gross national product of Western Europe by almost 1% and that of Eastern Europe by 16% thanks to the fact that the highly educated workers are much more productive in the West and free trade spreads the benefits from their extra productivity." The bottom line:

“Our simulations show that if the free movement of workers between East and West is allowed, as much as
27% of the Eastern European population would migrate to the West, with most of them being highly educated
workers. This would benefit Europe as a whole by increasing the gross national product of Western Europe
by almost 1% and that of Eastern Europe by 16% thanks to the fact that the highly educated workers are
much more productive in the West and free trade spreads the benefits from their extra productivity.”

]]> By: Javier http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/03/03/fact-of-the-day/#comment-12648 Javier Mon, 03 Mar 2008 21:27:57 +0000 http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/03/03/fact-of-the-day/#comment-12648 Will, take a look at this new NBER paper: http://papers.nber.org/papers/w13631 Will, take a look at this new NBER paper:

http://papers.nber.org/papers/w13631

]]> By: Javier http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/03/03/fact-of-the-day/#comment-12652 Javier Mon, 03 Mar 2008 21:27:00 +0000 http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/03/03/fact-of-the-day/#comment-12652 Will, take a look at this new NBER paper: http://papers.nber.org/papers/w13631 Will, take a look at this new NBER paper:

http://papers.nber.org/papers/w13631

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