Monthly Archives: July 2007
Dying for Drugs
Kerry’s outstanding piece on access to experimental drugs from the August/September issue of Reason is now available online. I think the thing that sets this article apart from typical libertarian FDA hit pieces is the way it so evenhandedly explains the rationale for excluding some dying patients from clinical trials. There is no ideological table pounding. I really understand why the system works the way it does in a way I never did before. It is moving without being sentimental. And, overall, completely devastating.
Why Wait?
Back in December I called my primary care physician’s office to schedule an appointment. I got one in mid-March. Such is life.
Dude! What are you doing? Medics USA on the corner of 17th and P Streets NW. The office will not be featured in Architectural Digest, but the doctors have presciption pads. I’ve always gotten in the same or next day. (202) 483-4400. You’re welcome.
Also, when a restaurant has an hour wait for a table, I just go somewhere else.
If Warheads Were Dessert, Arms Races Would be Delicious
David Brooks once wrote a column based on an astonishing sociological insight seldom noted by teenagers to the effect that not conforming is just another way of conforming when you do it in the way everyone else is doing it, say, by getting a tatttoo. Opting out is hard! Robert Frank noted this dynamic with the bygone multiple piercing fad in What Price the Moral High Ground. As whatever it is that having a piercing signals gets diluted by widespread adoption, you need more more bangles in holes to get the signaling job done. Frank says something about this costly race subsiding as norms against “bodily mutilation” kick in. That sounds wrong. What kicks in, I think, is a kind of signaling backfire — the ”trying too hard” phenomenon. If you’re out toward the right tail of the piercing distribution, you can attempt a kind of counter-signaling: “I’m not in fact trying too hard; I look this way because I seriously don’t give a f*ck what you think,” but it takes a very special person to make this work. People who invested in the signal early, before it got noisy, generally just drop it and search for something else.
But let’s back up a second. Frank is right that it seems like there is a kind of waste here. If some kind of truce could be established in the form of a norm that that three, but no more than three, piercings is maximally edgy, people could signal precisely the degree of edginess desired without fear of signal dilution and the costs of an escalating arms race. But in cases where the goal is to signal willingness to deviate from widespread social norms, it seems that additional widespread social norms regulating the pursuit of this goal can’t possibly be stable.
This obviously relates to the paradox of the avant garde, which I spent way too much time thinking about when I was an art student back when giants like Kurt Cobain walked the Earth. Each new shocking work intended to jar the bourgeousie out of their dull complacency only further desensitizes the burghers and hausfraus until even churchgoers and patriots become well-nigh unshockable and the game is used up. So, like a guy who affiliates with a community of tattoo afficianados among whom it doesn’t look like he’s trying too hard (and who provide an explanation), artists shift their frame of reference and create “the art world” and try to impress and dismay the denizens of that world — other artists, critics, collectors, hangers-on — with other kinds of limit-pushing. At some point, it seems, it became radical to paint figurative pictures in a traditional style and bisect sharks. It never ends! Think of the waste!
So how could a “truce” norm possibly work in this context? It couldn’t, unless there is a prior implicit agreement to refuse to confer status upon those who satisfy, entertain, and stimulate with paradigm-shifting novelty, which is not forthcoming. Therefore, artists continue to angle for attention and praise by producing interesting things. Positional arms races do seem to exhaust lines of creation. Each envelope-pushing success imposes costs on competitors. These days Piss Christs and dung-smeared madonnas need media blitzkriegs to invent a minor hubbub. Blank canvases get no blanker, empty rooms no emptier, etc. But as long as there is prestige (money, too) to be won, the aesthetic search pushes into neglected corners and fresh frontiers. Like oil companies with ingenious new extraction techniques, artists unsuited to blazing new trails return to fields that had seemed tapped out, but weren’t. The fecundity of these races is precisely in their norm-defying trucelessness.
Entrepreneurship, I think, is a lot like that. Or, rather, that’s an example of entrepreneurship at work. Something like this dynamic is behind a great deal of economic discovery in addition to artistic innovation. The supply of human creativity is too low. And status-seeking is probably a greater spur to creativity than even wealth-seeking. We need it. One argument against both taxes and certain social norms intended to limit positional competition is that they further reduce already undersupplied creativity. Of course, positional competition along certain dimensions — for political power, say — can be incredibly destructive and we’d be doomed without robust norms tighly regulating it. But we should be careful about what exactly we are taxing, socially and fiscally.
Yglesias versus Commenters
I love it! Matt’s Econ101-disdaining commenters are completely devastating in their muscular deployment of advanced labor economics.
Question for Bryan Caplan: Is there data on the consensus among economists on this one? My guess is: there is.
Are Our Soldiers Dying in Vain?
I think Obama stumbled so badly because he was trying not to utter the stupdity Edwards uttered just after him. For Edwards, I guess, death is never in vain as long as you signed up to follow orders, possibly in completely pointless wars.
The Passion of Mike Gravel
“The only thing worse than a soldier dying in vain is more soldiers dying in vain.”
And he meant it.
I don’t care what the post-debate polls say about you, Mike Gravel.
Kerry Howley
Obvs. And you should see the hott new haircut.
Punk Rock Economist
This picture of Tyler at the Mars Bar the East Village is awesome. He is more punk rock than any of those guys. Seriously. (Cowen has a tattoo on his mind.) The article is decent, too.
The Paid Vacation Laffer Curve
Yglesias makes a perfectly sound point in this post about paid vacation:
A paid vacation is a kind of accounting fiction — you continue to draw a paycheck (and health care benefits, etc.) even while you’re on vacation. But nobody’s going to pay you to go on vacation. You’re paid for the work that you actually do.The money you get on your vacation days is part of your payment for the work you do on the other days. Over the long run, if the government mandates a certain number of paid vacation days, then positions that currently offer fewer vacation days [than] that will become less lucrative.
Things like this assure us that Matt isn’t economically illiterate. But to some of his commentators, economic literacy amounts to treason. Witness Bloix:
At one point, Matt was an intelligent moderate liberal. All of sudden, he’s a wingnut spouting moronic right-wing talking points.
Incredible! Bloix, like a number of other commenters, seem peeved that Matt did not mention that productivity and wages could go up, due to happier, better-rested workers. And even if productivity did go down, wages could be kept constant by cutting executive pay, or shafting shareholders. Why are you such a wingnut, Matt!?
I like the point about highly tanned, highly productive workers, since it strikes me that it turns on something very like the logic of the so-called Laffer Curve. At the “no vacation” limit, you don’t get zero productivity, but the workers may be worn down, demoralized, listless, and perhaps even spitefully sluggish. At the “permanent vacation” limit, you do get zero productivity, since no one is ever at work. Somewhere in between is the productvity sweet spot. I suppose it is easy to imagine that we are currently at a point where more vacation would give us enough extra productivity to compensate for the time off. More productivity from less working! Like more revenue from lower taxes! Damn right-wing talking points.
Now, since companies obviously have no incentive to hit the productivity sweet spot, since companies don’t like making money, we may indeed need the government to step in here and make sure we all get the vacations our employers would give us if they had any reason to try to get us to really put our shoulders into it. Naturally we can be sure the government will find the optimal vacation sweet spot. You can’t buy bombs with taxes on unrealized profits!
Whetever you do, don’t tell the Chinese about weekends off!
The Courage to Conjoin
What renders atheism incompatible with a coherent account of morality, when it is incompatible, is physicalism (or what is sometimes described as reductive materialism). If it is true that the universe consists entirely and without remainder of particles and energy, then all human action must be within the domain of caused events, free will does not exist, and moral reasoning is futile if not illusory (as are other kinds of reasoning).
This is a stupefyingly widespread view that flows from an elementary error in thinking.
Suppose you know that there is free will or that moral reasoning is not futile. Next, suppose you find that the universe is made out of only whatever the universe is made out of. What do you infer? You infer that free will and moral reasoning, which occur inside the universe (or as aspects of the universe), whatever they may be, are made possible because of whatever it is the universe is made out of. And there you are.
Here is what you do not do. You do not start with a mystifying conditional like “If the universe is only physical (or whatever), then there is no free will,” because how do you know that? You don’t. But you may think you do and so you get caught in a retarded ponens/tollens showdown: the universe is physical, ergo no free will, or… free will, so the universe is not physical. But, again, through what method of divination do we validate this conditional? None. Because we already know it is false.
Here are two things you know: free will exists (it is obvious: go ahead, touch your nose) and the universe is made of whatever it is made of (obvious, if anything is). Therefore, you know the conjunction of those two things. Therefore, you know that the crazy proposition that says that one of them must be false isn’t true! There’s no need to get hung up on an arbitrary conjecture about the trascendental conditions for the very possibility of the existence of something when things you already know rule it out. P & Q implies ~ (P —> ~Q). Logic: try it!
If we find out tomorrow that the universe is made of jello, all we will have learned about morality is that it, like everything else, is ultimately jello-dependent.
Angus Deaton's New Happiness Paper
This is an important new paper using the freshest data. Abstract:
During 2006, the Gallup Organization collected World Poll data using an identical questionnaire from national samples of adults from 132 countries. This paper presents an analysis of the data on life-satisfaction (happiness) and health satisfaction and their relationships with national income, age, and life-expectancy. Average happiness is strongly related to per capita national income, with each doubling of income associated with a near one point increase in life satisfaction on a scale from 0 to 10. Unlike previous findings, the effect holds across the range of international incomes; if anything, it is slightly stronger among rich countries. Conditional on national income, recent economic growth makes people unhappier, improvements in life-expectancy make them happier, but life-expectancy itself has little effect. Age has an internationally inconsistent relationship with happiness. National income moderates the effects of aging on self-reported health, and the decline in health satisfaction and rise in disability with age are much stronger in poor countries than in rich countries. In line with earlier findings, people in much of Eastern Europe and in the countries of the former Soviet Union are particularly unhappy and particularly dissatisfied with their health, and older people in those countries are much less satisfied with their lives and their health than are younger people. HIV prevalence in Africa has little effect on Africans’ life or health satisfaction; the fraction of Kenyans who are satisfied with their personal health is the same as the fraction of Britons and higher than the fraction of Americans. The US ranks 81st out of 115 countries in the fraction of people who have confidence in their healthcare system, and has a lower score than countries such as India, Iran, Malawi, or Sierra Leone. While the strong relationship between life-satisfaction and income gives some credence to the measures, the lack of such correlations for health shows that happiness (or self-reported health) measures cannot be regarded as useful summary indicators of human welfare in international comparisons.
Money and Status: It Really Is Up to You
Ezra likes to caricature my claim about the multidimensional, opt-in/opt-out nature of status races as “the idea that otherwise pathetic people can be really respected in Everquest.” This is, of course, true. And it is also true that you can choose your career, choose where you will live, choose whether to marry, choose whether to have children, choose what causes to join, what stores to shop at, choose what to buy in them, etc., etc. with straightforward implications on your experience of status. As far as I can tell, however, Ezra thinks all this is doubtful, which is completely mystifying, since I think it’s pretty obvious. Ezra:
[Liberal arts degreees, obscure Russian poets and vanity bands are] also for very young people. Braxton’s life is essentially defined by an absence of responsibilities, dangers, or economic ties. He’s young and healthy, single (but hanging out with an awesome girl!), doesn’t own a home, doesn’t appear to have college debt, etc. Income doesn’t define his status because, at the moment, he doesn’t much need income. This will change. Quickly. And then income will define his status — and not just in an envious manner. Income will define whether his kid gets to go to a good school, and whether his family is safe from medical emergencies, and whether his clothing makes him look suitable for promotion. The ability to seek fulfillment in other realms will not vanish as he ages, but his capacity to eschew material concerns and forsake financial security will.
The imaginary Braxton, like Ezra and me (despite being so old), is in a major life stage sociologist Michael Rosenfeld calls “the age of independence,” as detailed in this interesting Kieran Healy post. Whether he is going to need a lot of income soon depends on the choices he makes. He could go on just like that for a long time, if he wants, like I have. If it is in the end ”just a phase” (and what isnt?), it is by no means a trivial phase. If the denizens of wealthy liberal democracies now spend longer portions of life free to explore their interests without the necessity of earning high incomes, that seems like a kind of triumph.
Morevover, if Braxton partners and chooses to have children, requiring extra income, it is completely open to him (and completely normal) to see that income as an instrument to raising his children, not as a signifier of status. And income has almost nothing to do with whether his kid gets to go to a good school. Where he chooses to live does. This might require some hard tradeoffs. Good public schools might not be available in the Boston neighborhoods Braxton can afford, where his friends are. But they are available in Omaha in neighborhoods he can afford. And it’s probably a better music scene, too. If he decides to get a different kind of job so he can afford a place in a Boston neighborhood with good schools, we’ve got to keep in mind that there is no sense whatsoever in which unavoidable circumstances forced him into this. His preferences — for children, for Boston — did. We are not entitled to whatever we at the price we want wherever we want.
Millions upon millions of people in societies like ours spend their whole lives and raise families on modest artist, editor, teacher, or non-profit incomes because they prefer it over ready alternatives that provide larger incomes. Their status comes from being well-received and respected in their communities, whatever their communities may be. Being a beloved school teacher, a leader of a community theater, or the social pillar of a church are the kinds of sources of real status that most people do enjoy and emphasize in their lives. Everquest is good, too. Why demean the way people choose to live?
Ezra needs to put down the Robert Frank. Frank needs to establish that the rat race is something like an inevitability to get the conceptual machinery behind his policy proposals churning, but he can’t, and so it doesn’t. Narrowly materialist status pursuits just aren’t an inevitability and it is so easy to show it that I really wonder what’s going on psychologically and ideologically with people who keep trying to sell us on this. Give me a week and I’ll find a hundred stories of people who have chosen a life in which income in not their main source (or even a source) of status. Give me a year and I’ll find five thousand stories. What does it take?
Also, Frank has never shown that his conclusions about tax policy even follow from his premises. As David Weisbach, director of the U of Chicago Law & Economics program, makes clear:
This [Frank's] simple intuition [about status] does not tell us anything about the likely effects of status on the tax rate schedule. For example, increasing progressivity would move everyone closer together. This might decrease status competition, because the gains from competition are smaller – it would be harder to separate yourself from the group. On the other hand, it might increase status competition. If you are closer to beating someone in a status race, you might try harder. Thus, we can imagine status considerations leading to either a more progressive tax system or a less progressive tax system.
And, like Adam Smith and David Hume thought, in the right institutional and cultural context, the externalities of income-related status-seeking may be net positive, in which case a benevolent planner would subsidize it. So, the idea that people can’t help but seek social status through income and consumption is pretty clearly false in the first place, is of indeterminate policy implication in the second place, and, in the third place, it’s a pretty unattractively materialistic conception of human motivation for nice liberals (the leftwing homo economicus?).
I agree with Ezra that
To most people, money matters. A lot. Sometimes in absolute terms, sometimes in positional terms. Really good taste in vanity bands rarely pays the mortgage.
My point was precisely that money does matter. You need to live in a wealthy society to do the things Braxton does. Wealthy societies — societies in which uninternalized positive externalities run like milk and honey — are liberating. And in that kind of society, you can do these things without making a lot of money yourself. The absolute amount of money you need, say, for a mortgage, depends on choices you make, mostly the choice of where to live. But the existence of a market in inexpensive secondhand electric guitars, lots of other people who play instruments, and a “scene” is not something you have to pay for yourself. And the importance of money as a positional matter depends on choices we make (especially if you consider the failure to break the hold of your accidental clique’s expectations as a choice, which I do). My point was precisely that vanity bands may not pay the mortgage, but it doesn’t matter, because you don’t have to have a mortgage to have a vanity band, a satisfying level of social status, or happiness. It doesn’t matter how old you are. Surely Ezra doesn’t really think we are all fated to pin our hopes of esteem on our paychecks. So what are we really talking about?
Relatively Awesome
This is the best article I’ve read on the relationship between income, autonomy, status, and happiness. It happens to be from the Onion. Best bit:
Braxton, who earns roughly one-fourth of what the firm’s lowest-seniority full-time employees make, said he has no desire to make his coworkers feel bad about their “boring, shitty lives.”
“If somebody complains about how bad it sucks to work overtime five days straight, I just nod and agree,” said Braxton, who spends his weeknights at parties, at concerts, and playing basketball in the park. “No point in rubbing in the fact that no matter how busy things are, I leave at exactly 5 p.m. every single day. If anyone asks me to stay later, I just say my agency doesn’t let me do overtime.”
After graduating from Wesleyan University in May 2000 with a degree in Russian literature, Braxton worked a series of part-time jobs in and around Boston. In December 2001, he signed on with QualiTemps, the city’s largest supplier of temporary office labor, which currently pays him $8.44 per hour.
“I have so much going on in my life right now,” Braxton said. “I’m helping a friend start up a little Cajun food stand, I’ve gotten way into this Russian poet Mayakovsky, I’ve been hanging out with this really cool girl I met when my band, Sophie Drillteam, did a show with hers. Honestly, I just don’t have the time or energy to put into some job.”
In spite of his happiness, Braxton said he makes sure always to project an air of dissatisfaction, in both facial expression and posture, while in the office.
Income and position in the office hierarchy are far from the only dimensions of satisfying status. And don’t miss the larger lesson: Braxton’s ability to live a deeply engaging, self-directed, creative, relatively low-income lifestyle is a side-effect of overall abundance. He is, in effect, free-riding off the miserable productivity of his co-workers and people like them. Liberal arts degrees, obscure Russian poets, and vanity bands are for rich people. Being rich and personally having a large income are completely different things.
Shorter Gerson
Virtual worlds like Second Life in which actions can have few irremediable bad consequences surprisingly include zones of anarchic licentiousness. Therefore, real lives of authentic freedom, unspoiled by censorious moralizing scolds like me, cannot have purpose or meaning.
Idiotic column here.