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	<title>Comments on: The Forecasting Debate and the Brittleness of PAYGO</title>
	<atom:link href="http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2005/01/19/the-forecasting-debate-and-the-brittleness-of-paygo/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2005/01/19/the-forecasting-debate-and-the-brittleness-of-paygo/</link>
	<description>The Sweet Release of Reason</description>
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		<title>By: Micha Ghertner</title>
		<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2005/01/19/the-forecasting-debate-and-the-brittleness-of-paygo/#comment-3838</link>
		<dc:creator>Micha Ghertner</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Jan 2005 22:31:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=618#comment-3838</guid>
		<description>It would include obligations under Social Security; what makes you think it wouldn&#039;t? Cato&#039;s proposals don&#039;t include repudiation of government debt.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It would include obligations under Social Security; what makes you think it wouldn&#8217;t? Cato&#8217;s proposals don&#8217;t include repudiation of government debt.</p>
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		<title>By: Gareth</title>
		<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2005/01/19/the-forecasting-debate-and-the-brittleness-of-paygo/#comment-3837</link>
		<dc:creator>Gareth</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Jan 2005 19:30:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=618#comment-3837</guid>
		<description>Micha,

I suppose it is unreasonable for me to ask you what someone you disagree with would say. But the problem is that if you take for granted that the government should meet its contractual obligations, why wouldn&#039;t that include accrued obligations under Social Security? Bush&#039;s plan might arguably be consistent with this, although it is hard to say because we haven&#039;t seen it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Micha,</p>
<p>I suppose it is unreasonable for me to ask you what someone you disagree with would say. But the problem is that if you take for granted that the government should meet its contractual obligations, why wouldn&#8217;t that include accrued obligations under Social Security? Bush&#8217;s plan might arguably be consistent with this, although it is hard to say because we haven&#8217;t seen it.</p>
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		<title>By: Micha Ghertner</title>
		<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2005/01/19/the-forecasting-debate-and-the-brittleness-of-paygo/#comment-3836</link>
		<dc:creator>Micha Ghertner</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Jan 2005 18:08:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=618#comment-3836</guid>
		<description>Epstein deviates from many other libertarians in a number of areas, most notably with his support of eminent domain. I believe he is a more of a consequentialist than a deontologist, and yes, he does think government is necessary and moral. Other minarchists, however, share the anarchist view that taxation is tantamount to theft, but do not take this to its logical conclusion.

It&#039;s not clear to me what problem a libertarian who thinks the government must meet its contractual obligations needs to address. By definition, this person opposes the federal government repudiating its obligations.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Epstein deviates from many other libertarians in a number of areas, most notably with his support of eminent domain. I believe he is a more of a consequentialist than a deontologist, and yes, he does think government is necessary and moral. Other minarchists, however, share the anarchist view that taxation is tantamount to theft, but do not take this to its logical conclusion.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s not clear to me what problem a libertarian who thinks the government must meet its contractual obligations needs to address. By definition, this person opposes the federal government repudiating its obligations.</p>
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		<title>By: Gareth</title>
		<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2005/01/19/the-forecasting-debate-and-the-brittleness-of-paygo/#comment-3835</link>
		<dc:creator>Gareth</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Jan 2005 16:40:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=618#comment-3835</guid>
		<description>Micha,

As I understand it, not all libertarians think that government is illegitimate, and therefore that taxes are theft. The libertarian whose views I am most familiar with -- Richard Epstein -- definitely thinks the government must perform its contractual obligations.

Even an anarcho-capitalist might wonder about the transitional costs invovled in having the government default on all its obligations (except to the extent they could be fulfilled by selling Yellowstone and a few aircraft carriers).

So, I concede that my argument that government must meet its obligations to the SS trust fund does not work from your premises, since you don&#039;t think the government must meet its obligations, to the extent these would be paid out of taxes. However, I would still be interested in how a libertarian who thinks the government must meet its contractual obligations addresses this problem.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Micha,</p>
<p>As I understand it, not all libertarians think that government is illegitimate, and therefore that taxes are theft. The libertarian whose views I am most familiar with &#8212; Richard Epstein &#8212; definitely thinks the government must perform its contractual obligations.</p>
<p>Even an anarcho-capitalist might wonder about the transitional costs invovled in having the government default on all its obligations (except to the extent they could be fulfilled by selling Yellowstone and a few aircraft carriers).</p>
<p>So, I concede that my argument that government must meet its obligations to the SS trust fund does not work from your premises, since you don&#8217;t think the government must meet its obligations, to the extent these would be paid out of taxes. However, I would still be interested in how a libertarian who thinks the government must meet its contractual obligations addresses this problem.</p>
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		<title>By: Micha Ghertner</title>
		<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2005/01/19/the-forecasting-debate-and-the-brittleness-of-paygo/#comment-3834</link>
		<dc:creator>Micha Ghertner</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Jan 2005 15:26:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=618#comment-3834</guid>
		<description>If you are happy to be this consisent, good on ya. However, you will have to excuse me if I don&#039;t take your intervention in contemporary policy debates seriously.

Would I be happier if I were inconsistent?

Earlier in this thread, you asked why it is a libertarian position to support the federal government repudiating its obligations. I demonstrated that this follows directly from the libertarian view of taxation is tantamount to theft. Why did you bother asking if you were not interested in the answer?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If you are happy to be this consisent, good on ya. However, you will have to excuse me if I don&#8217;t take your intervention in contemporary policy debates seriously.</p>
<p>Would I be happier if I were inconsistent?</p>
<p>Earlier in this thread, you asked why it is a libertarian position to support the federal government repudiating its obligations. I demonstrated that this follows directly from the libertarian view of taxation is tantamount to theft. Why did you bother asking if you were not interested in the answer?</p>
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		<title>By: monkyboy</title>
		<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2005/01/19/the-forecasting-debate-and-the-brittleness-of-paygo/#comment-3833</link>
		<dc:creator>monkyboy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Jan 2005 14:15:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=618#comment-3833</guid>
		<description>Micha, China currently has 25 billionaires.  All are members of the communist party or the Red Army.  There is a small percentage of the people who earn almost western wages, and then there are over a billion people living in poverty.  In a way, China is a glimpse of America in the future...if the Republicans have their way.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Micha, China currently has 25 billionaires.  All are members of the communist party or the Red Army.  There is a small percentage of the people who earn almost western wages, and then there are over a billion people living in poverty.  In a way, China is a glimpse of America in the future&#8230;if the Republicans have their way.</p>
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		<title>By: Gareth</title>
		<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2005/01/19/the-forecasting-debate-and-the-brittleness-of-paygo/#comment-3832</link>
		<dc:creator>Gareth</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Jan 2005 12:40:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=618#comment-3832</guid>
		<description>Micha,

It isn&#039;t hard to prove that the premise that taxes are theft leads to anarchist conclusions. One of these anarchist conclusions is that owners of US Government bonds would have to make do with a part ownership of the Lincoln memorial and the Yellowstone National Park.

If you are happy to be this consisent, good on ya. However, you will have to excuse me if I don&#039;t take your intervention in contemporary policy debates seriously.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Micha,</p>
<p>It isn&#8217;t hard to prove that the premise that taxes are theft leads to anarchist conclusions. One of these anarchist conclusions is that owners of US Government bonds would have to make do with a part ownership of the Lincoln memorial and the Yellowstone National Park.</p>
<p>If you are happy to be this consisent, good on ya. However, you will have to excuse me if I don&#8217;t take your intervention in contemporary policy debates seriously.</p>
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		<title>By: Micha Ghertner</title>
		<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2005/01/19/the-forecasting-debate-and-the-brittleness-of-paygo/#comment-3831</link>
		<dc:creator>Micha Ghertner</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Jan 2005 09:51:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=618#comment-3831</guid>
		<description>So in China, there is no private ownership of the means of production? All economic activity is planned by the state? There is no free trade with capitalist countries? The cause of China&#039;s impressive economic growth are those aspects of the economy which are truly communist, and not the newly instituted market reforms?

In its thousands of years of existence, China has frequently opened its borders to foreign businessmen, and then slammed them shut. That the next time they do it they will collect hundreds of billions of dollars is...almost comical.

So the best way to make hundreds of billions of dollars...is to restrict free trade? Free money! Every country should move towards autarky if they want to be rich, right?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So in China, there is no private ownership of the means of production? All economic activity is planned by the state? There is no free trade with capitalist countries? The cause of China&#8217;s impressive economic growth are those aspects of the economy which are truly communist, and not the newly instituted market reforms?</p>
<p>In its thousands of years of existence, China has frequently opened its borders to foreign businessmen, and then slammed them shut. That the next time they do it they will collect hundreds of billions of dollars is&#8230;almost comical.</p>
<p>So the best way to make hundreds of billions of dollars&#8230;is to restrict free trade? Free money! Every country should move towards autarky if they want to be rich, right?</p>
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		<title>By: monkyboy</title>
		<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2005/01/19/the-forecasting-debate-and-the-brittleness-of-paygo/#comment-3830</link>
		<dc:creator>monkyboy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Jan 2005 22:34:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=618#comment-3830</guid>
		<description>Yes, Micha, China is a communist country.  That they have instituted a few market reforms doesn&#039;t change that.

In its thousands of years of existence, China has frequently opened its borders to foreign businessmen, and then slammed them shut.  That the next time they do it they will collect hundreds of billions of dollars is...almost comical.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes, Micha, China is a communist country.  That they have instituted a few market reforms doesn&#8217;t change that.</p>
<p>In its thousands of years of existence, China has frequently opened its borders to foreign businessmen, and then slammed them shut.  That the next time they do it they will collect hundreds of billions of dollars is&#8230;almost comical.</p>
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		<title>By: Micha Ghertner</title>
		<link>http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2005/01/19/the-forecasting-debate-and-the-brittleness-of-paygo/#comment-3829</link>
		<dc:creator>Micha Ghertner</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Jan 2005 22:16:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=618#comment-3829</guid>
		<description>This is apt:

&quot;My political views seem natural and obvious—to me. Others find them peculiar. Their peculiarity consists largely of carrying certain statements, familiar enough in political oratory, to their natural conclusions&quot;

- David Friedman, Machinery of Freedom

We recognize the moral error when high school upperclass men try to justify the tormenting of their younger peers with the excuse that they themselves were tormented. Yet we refuse to follow this same logic and apply it to senior citizens.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is apt:</p>
<p>&#8220;My political views seem natural and obvious—to me. Others find them peculiar. Their peculiarity consists largely of carrying certain statements, familiar enough in political oratory, to their natural conclusions&#8221;</p>
<p>- David Friedman, Machinery of Freedom</p>
<p>We recognize the moral error when high school upperclass men try to justify the tormenting of their younger peers with the excuse that they themselves were tormented. Yet we refuse to follow this same logic and apply it to senior citizens.</p>
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